Modeling COVID-19 and Its Policy Applications

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Published:
April 29, 2020

LBJ In the Arena: April 29, 2020

LBJ School Assistant Dean of Civic Engagement Victoria DeFrancesco Soto talked with Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor in the Departments of Integrative Biology and Statistics and Data Sciences at the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Meyers has been at the forefront of modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and informing government agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House Office for Science and Technology. She discussed the immediate and long-term risks of the virus and engage in a conversation of how policy and science have interfaced in the COVID-19 context.

Meyers' conversation included a presentation: Modeling to mitigate COVID-19.

Deeper Dive   |    Additional Reading & Viewing

 

Deeper Dive

COVID-19 Mortality Projections for U.S. States
The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium

COVID-19 Reports & Publications
The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium

Predicting outbreaks: Supercomputers help forecast diseases' spread
The Texas Scientist
Knowing where, when, and how quickly a dangerous pathogen is likely to spread is key to controlling an outbreak. The Texas Pandemic Flu Toolkit is an online resource that allows public health officials to simulate pandemics on supercomputers at UT's Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC).

 

Additional Reading & Viewing

Coronavirus in Texas: UT's top epidemiologist has been preparing for this fight for decades
Austin American Statesman, April 24, 2020
In the last few months, Lauren Ancel Meyers's research team at UT has grown from a handful of people in a lab to what is known as the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, which is dedicated to understanding how the pandemic is spreading and how we can fight it. Her research has received national attention. In addition to their use by city and state officials, Meyers’ models have been presented to officials at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House Coronavirus Task Force.

Does my county have an epidemic? Estimates show hidden transmissions
New York Times, April 3, 2020
As the coronavirus spreads silently through American cities and towns, people are struggling with questions about the benefits of social-distancing guidelines — especially in places that still have few reported cases. Is the epidemic here yet? A new study by disease modelers at The University of Texas at Austin gives an answer: Even counties with just a single reported case have more than 50 percent likelihood that a sustained, undetected outbreak — an epidemic — is already taking place.

The secret life of coronavirus: Why we need such drastic social distancing measures
The Economist Intelligence Unit, March 20, 2020
Scientists use modelling to decipher an outbreak's transmissibility (known as R-naught) but COVID-19 is playing a very different and dangerous game. Left unchecked, the novel coronavirus will continue to sweep the globe. The horror stories from emergency departments and initial estimates of fatality rates starkly portend large numbers of people dying from both the virus and insufficient healthcare capacity. However, there is disagreement about what it will take to halt this progression and how far our preventative measures should go.

Networking Medicine: Lauren Meyers at TEDxYouth@Austin
TEDxYouth, July 25, 2014