The North Korea Forecast for 2021: A Former National Intelligence Officer's View

On Tuesday, Feb. 2, the Strauss Center, Intelligence Studies Project and Clements Center are pleased to welcome Markus Garlauskas, a former North Korea national Intelligence Officer and Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Asia Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, for a virtual talk on "The North Korea Forecast for 2021: A Former National Intelligence Officer's View." Sheena Chestnut Greitens, associate professor of public affairs at the LBJ School, will moderate the talk.

North Korea is often described by perplexed pundits as "unpredictable," and even experienced intelligence professionals refer to it as a "hard target." Garlauskas will explain the analytic tradecraft that can be used to meet the difficult challenge of making strategic-level forecasts of North Korean behavior, based on nearly two decades of experience in government focused on North Korea at the U.S. National Intelligence Council and in the headquarters of U.S. Forces Korea. He will then apply this methodology to provide an overall forecast of what to expect from North Korea in 2021, and the implications of various scenarios for US policy and strategy under the new administration. His presentation will be followed by a question and answer session, where he will share insights useful for better understanding North Korea, as well as for careers in strategy and intelligence.


Registration is required. Please note: You must have a Zoom account and log into Zoom with the same email address you used to register.


Markus V. Garlauskas led the U.S. intelligence community's strategic analysis on North Korea as the National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for North Korea from July 2014 to June 2020. Before his appointment as NIO, he served in Seoul at the U.S. Forces Korea headquarters for nearly 12 years in a variety of key positions, including as the chief of intelligence estimates and the director of strategy. Following the conclusion of his government appointment as a member of the Senior National Intelligence Service, he joined the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security of the Atlantic Council as a nonresident senior fellow affiliated with its Asia Security Initiative. He earned a master's degree from Georgetown University's Security Studies Program and now teaches a new course in Strategic Analysis of North Korea for this program. Follow him on Twitter: @Mister_G_2.

Strauss Center