This PRP will develop a crisis scenario exercise for the U.S. Army War College. The scenario will focus on a water crisis in the Horn of Africa, which sets off conflict between ethnic groups over scarce water resources on a border region between Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. The prolonged drought also contributes to mounting food insecurity, creating a humanitarian crisis and the threat of famine in the failed state of Somalia. Finally, the compounding problems of conflict over water resources and looming famine triggers a refugee flow across borders. The escalating crisis necessitates actions from both domestic and international actors in the fields of humanitarian relief, development assistance, refugee assistance, and conflict resolution (peace-building). In this scenario, participants will be assigned to teams covering a range of relevant actors, including the “United Nations Peace-Keeping Operation in the Horn of Africa, UNHOA”, African Union, United Nations High Commission on Refugees, Africom, the United Nations Environment Program, the Government of Ethiopia, the Government of Kenya, the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, Doctors without Borders, and the International Committee of the Red Cross. The key task of the scenario is to develop a plan for a coordinated response among these various actors to effectively address the escalating crisis.
Students in this PRP will conduct extensive research on the complex threat of water scarcity in the Horn of Africa and the various crises that could arise from a slow-onset drought in a region that is already politically and economic unstable. Students will develop the exact details and parameters of the scenario, as well as extensive background materials and confidential instruction materials for each of the specified teams in the negotiation exercise.
Students will likely travel to Carlisle, PA, home of the Army War College, to conduct a test run of the crisis scenario with the Army War College Fellows in the Spring 2013.