Emerging Technologies’ Potential to Change the Balance of Power in Asia

pThe contemporary strategic balance in East Asia contains a significant degree of ldquo;slackrdquo; that tempers international threats: the offense-defense balance, geography, and the current alliance system in which the United States injects power from outside the region on the side of smaller, weaker states all mitigate the potential for sudden surges in defense spending, surprise adoption of new technology, and clever, aggressive strategies to change the balance. Emerging technologies always have the potential to upend the strategic balance, but the current trajectory, analyzed in terms of its interaction with current military capabilities, geography, and role of the U.S., is likely to reinforce the slack in the region, keeping the threat of war relatively low. Regional powers can assure that defensive advantage through appropriate investment choices./p